[sMMArt Money] UFC 150: Henderson vs. Edgar II

STUDIO MMA, VENICE, CA — After the fireworks of last weekend’s UFC on Fox 4: Rua vs. Vera, the UFC 150 combatants have big shoes to fill.  But, with a card featuring Bendo, The Answer, Cowboy, The Young Assassin, Thunder, and Short Fuse, there are some ballistics in store.  By the way, we were 4-for-5 in predictions last week.

Henderson vs. Edgar II may be the most evenly matched title fight since Edgar vs. Henderson I!  So you can bet these boys have been gearing up and are ready to deliver everything they’ve got.  Here’s how the betting odds break-down.  Are you going to put your money where your MMA mouth is?

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DENNIS “THE MENACE” BERMUDEZ [8-3-0 MMA] -300
TOMMY “WILD CARD” HAYDEN [8-1-0 MMA] +230

Rather questionably, the oddsmakers are favoring Bermudez in this featherweight kerfuffle.  Prior to his decision victory over the lanky Pablo Garza at UFC on Fox 3, Bermudez has been submitted in the first round three times in a row.  Meanwhile, despite a submission loss to Fabricio Camoes in his last apeparance, Wild Card has finished 7 of his 8 victories.  And 5 of them have come by submission.  Maybe Bermudez looks like the tougher fighter.  But, we don’t think he should be the favorite here, much less with such a steep line.

How should you bet?  Bet heavy. On Hayden.
Studio MMA Prediction: Hayden by Decision, Round 3. 

JARED “THE MESSENGER” HAMMAN [13-4-0 MMA] -110
MICHAEL “JUDO” KUIPER [11-1-0 MMA] -120

This middleweight fight is a tough one to call.  Hamman and Kuiper can both put a man to sleep in a hurry.  Hamman has fight scraps in the Octagon with marginal success.  He’s 2 and 3 in the UFC.  However, he did TKO a tough C.B. Dolloway a year ago.  Kuiper has the prettier MMA record.  However, his only appearance in the Octagon ended in a decision defeat to Rafael Natal.  And, as Hector Lombard recently showed us, there is no substitute for cage-time in the UFC.

How should you bet?  Bet light.  On Hamman.
Studio MMA Prediction: Hamman by TKO, Round 2.

YUSHIN “THUNDER” OKAMI [26-7-0 MMA]  -600
BUDDY ROBERTS [12-2-0 MMA] +400

This is the most lopsided line since… last week, when Phil Davis was handicapped at -800 and Wagner Prado at +500.  That fight ended 90 seconds in due to an accidental eye poke that semi-blinded Prado.  However, before the doctor waived it off, Prado had rocked Davis and certainly could have scored a major upset in his first UFC showing.  The moral of this story?  Always bet against lopsided lines on UFC fights.  Well… almost always.

Okami has shown that he is an ever-evolving, ever-improving striker and wrestler.  He belongs in the upper echelon of the middleweight division.  Yet, he has lost his last two — to Anderson Silva and Tim Boetsch.  A loss to Anderson is to be expected.  But, to be dropped by a jab — as he was in the first round — is not.  In his rebound fight, Okami absolutely dominated the first two rounds against the Barbarian — picking him apart with brilliant striking and neutralizing Boetsch’s wrestling game.  Then Boetsch buried Okami with a collection of strong uppercuts.  Okami’s chin is questionable.  Very questionable.  That, combined with the juicy odds, is why you must bet against him here.

Just two short months after his UFC debut — a decision win over Caio Malgahaes — Roberts is back for more.  He’s one of the very few middleweights who is comparable in size to Okami.  And, maybe, just maybe, he’s more powerful.

How should you bet?  Bet heavy.  On Roberts.
Studio MMA Prediction: Okami via Decision, Round 3.

DONALD “COWBOY” CERRONE [18-4-0 1NC] -315
MELVIN “THE YOUNG ASSASSIN” GUILLARD [30-10-2 1NC] +245

A battle of two lightweight friends.  Cerrone, due to hard work and focus, is perhaps a top-fiver in the division.  Guillard, due cockiness and brain farts, barely deserves to be in this fight.  Cerrone’s only recent blemish was a pummeling at the hands of a brilliant Nate Diaz.  However, Cowboy rebounded with an impressive 3-round clowning of Jeremy Stephens.  Guillard is 1 and 2 in his last 3 Octagon appearances.  And two of those were 1st-round drubbings — at the hands of Joe Lauzon and Jim Miller.  Guillard decisioned Fabricio Camoes just over a month ago.  However, he did not raise his stock much in doing so.

How should you bet?  Bet heavy.  On Cerrone.
Studio MMA Prediction: Cerrone via TKO, Round 2.

JAKE SHIELDS [27-6-1 MMA] -200
ED “SHORT FUSE” HERMAN [20-8-0 MMA] +160 

Ed Herman talks a lot, recently slamming Anderson Silva for “ducking” the Chris Weidman fight.  And, Short Fuse thinks he’ll wear the belt one day.  Indeed, he seems to be improving all of the time.  But in a division that includes Anderson, Yushin, Weidman, Belfort, Bisping, Sonnen, and Munoz… a title is a hard wish to fulfill.  Nonetheless, Herman is coming off of three very dominant performances.

Shields, on the other hand, has already been a champion — several times over in different promotions.  The BJJ stand-out has wins over Okami, Condit, Pyle, Daley, Lawler, Mayhem, Kampmann, Akiyama, and, most notably, Dan Henderson.  He is returning to 185 pounds and is perhaps more motivated than ever.  While he did not dominate Sexyama in his last appearance, Shields outworked and outstruck the dynamic Judo-master.  Most importantly, he trains with three of the greatest living mixed martial artists: Gil Melendez, Nick Diaz, and Nate Diaz.

How should you bet?  Bet light.  On Shields.
Studio MMA Prediction: Shields by Submission, Round 1. 

BENSON “SMOOTH” HENDERSON [16-2-0 MMA] -210
FRANKIE “THE ANSWER” EDGAR [14-2-1 MMA] +170

A well-deserved rematch for these two men.  Edgar, as usual, is outsized.  But he may be faster and grittier than any other man in the division, including Bendo.  The critics were split in their opinion of the unanimous decision that earned Bendo the belt.  However, to say it was a judging foul-up is simply inaccurate.  This is the most competitive division in the UFC, by far.  And there is no clear favorite for this rematch, nor a clear frontrunner in the weight class.  No one works harder than these two men.  Henderson, in fact, trains 4 times per day.  The one area where Benson has a clear advantage?  Submissions.  He has a titanium neck and a vicious guillotine.  But Edgar has repeatedly proven to be nearly indestructible.  And +170 is an attractive line for a bet on The Answer

How should you bet?  Bet medium.  On Edgar.
Studio MMA Prediction: Henderson via Submission, Round 3.

In the mood for a lots of gravy on your potatoes?  A parlay of these 6 fights has 167:1 odds!!!  Bet $10 and you’ll walk away with $1670!!!

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