[sMMArt Money] UFC 149: Faber vs. Barao

STUDIO MMA, VENICE, CA — Are the MMA oddsmakers getting savvier?  There’s not a lot of edge in the lines for the main card for UFC 149: Faber vs. Barao.  As a result, only a couple of bouts are serious targets for your precious pocket change.  So, in this edition of sMMArt Money, we have analyzed the entire fight card and, below, present you with the handful of opportunities to make some real cabbage.

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ANTHONY “THE HIPPO” PEROSH [13-6-0 MMA] +140
RYAN “BIG DEAL” JIMMO [16-1-0 MMA] -170

40-year-old Perosh has 13 victories to his belt, all of which are finishes.  He has faced big dogs like Jeff Monson, James TeHuna, and Mirko Cro Cop.  His biggest win, perhaps, was a submission of Cyrille Diabate in November 2011.  And he’s 7 and 2 since November of 2008.  Perosh is aging, but he’s a tough Hippo.  Jimmo has one hell of a record, with 15 straight victories stretching back to 2007!  But a long winning streak a Hector Lombard does not make.  Jimmo’s notable wins have come over Marvin Eastman, Wilson Gouveia, and Rameau Sokoudjou.  However, those three men have a combined 32 losses.  So besting them is not the most impressive credential.  Perosh should be a real test for the Big Deal.

Studio MMA Prediction: Perosh via Submission, Round 2.

BRIAN “BAD BOY” EBERSOLE [50-14-1 1NC MMA]  -400
JAMES HEAD [8-2-0 MMA] +300 

Ebersole has an absurd 50 wins in 66 professional outings, and he only seems to get better with age.  He’s 15 of his last 16 — the only blemish coming from a TKO at the hands of Hector Lombard back in 2008.  However, he has been less than dominant in his last two outings against Claude Patrick and TJ Waldburger.  This may be the reason that he is planning a drop to lightweight after he’s finished with James Head.  For his part, Head has 56 fewer appearances in the cage than Ebersole.  However, he looked scary in his 1st-round TKO finish of rugged 170-pounder Papi Abedi.  If he can muster up that kind of viciousness against Ebersole, this could be interesting.  As a result, these odds are way too lopsided, and a bet on Head is a worthwhile risk.

Studio MMA Prediction: Ebersole via Unanimous Decision, Round 3.

MATT RIDDLE [6-3-0 MMA] -155
CHRIS CLEMENTS [11-4-0 MMA] +125

You may remember that his bout originally featured Thiago Alves and Yoshihiro Akiyama.  However, Sexyama got hurt and was replaced by Siyar Bahadurzada.  Then Alves went down and was replaced by Clements.  And finally, Siyar dropped and Riddle fills in.  Despite the do-si-do, it’s hard to select a favorite in this welterweight match-up.  Yet we feel somewhat strongly that the favorite should not be Riddle.  Despite an impressive TKO of Demarques Johnson, Riddle is only 1 and 2 in his last 3 UFC outings.  On the other hand, concrete-fisted Clements is riding a 5-win streak,  in which he has TKO/KOd four of his opponents.

Studio MMA Prediction: Clements via TKO, Round 1.

HECTOR “LIGHTNING” LOMBARD [31-2-1 1NC MMA] -360
TIM “THE BARBARIAN” BOETSCH [15-4-0 MMA]  +270

In the history of the UFC, it is unlikely that any fighter has been as feared upon his debut as Hector Lombard.  The Cuban, who trains out of American Top Team, has literally obliterated every one of his opponents since 2007, racking up a 25-fight win streak.  Vicious, vicious stuff.  Boetsch is a tough guy, and showed us that he can never be counted out.  Yushin Okami beat him up for 10 minutes before Boetsch pulled off the comeback TKO of the decade.  He is a remarkable wrestler — one of the best in the division.  And Boetsch is as strong as a Rhino.  But he is no Hector Lombard.  There is only one Hector Lombard, and we’ll see what kind of damage he can do as he sets his sights on Anderson Silva’s belt.  Don’t bet on this fight.  The odds are accurate and you won’t make any money on a Lombard win.

Studio MMA Predicition: Lombard via TKO, Round 1.

RENAN “BARAO” PEGADO [28-1-0 1NC MMA] -190
URIJAH “THE CALIFORNIA KID” FABER [26-5-0 MMA] +150

Barao is an absolute beast.  Not counting a “no contest” back in 2007, he has won 28 in a row in impressive fashion.  This includes 19 finishes.  In his last two outings he made quick work of Brad Pickett and decisioned Scott Jorgensen.  But now he faces one of the most storied fighters in the division in Urijah Faber.  In his career, The California Kid has appeared in 15 title fights.  We repeat — 15 title fights.  This includes 5 defenses of the WEC featherweight belt.  For a 135-pounder, he is a very hard hitter, a tough grappler, and has a huge gas tank.  Pegado is the favorite here, but, if you want to make it exciting, throw something down on the Kid.

Studio MMA Prediction: Faber via TKO, Round 3.

And, if you really want to play, bet a parlay of Perosh, Clements, Head, and Faber.  If those 4 win, you will get back around 54 times what you bet.  Throw in Tim Boetsch and the odds of that Parlay become 202:1!